2019/05/05

Preparing for coming Jubilee event

A jubilee event is a general cancellation or repudiation, either of all debt, or of all national debt. The current accounts national debt in the US. is about $25 Trillion. The unfunded obligations debt exceeds that by an order of ten or more.

A jubilee is based on the ancient Jewish law (halakah) of shmita, according to which personal debt is to be collected or cancelled every seven years, the land left fallow for a year,  and slaves freed. The "jubilee is  a more severe version of this every 49 years. That law also prescribed leaving land fallow for a year, and suspending the slaughter of livestock during that year, although wild game could be taken, The poor could glean the fields and orchards. 

Many are warning that the national debt of the U.S. and other nations can never be paid, Almost every nation is engaged in deficit spending and the rapid increase of debt. 

Now in principle, if a high enough economic growth could be sustained for long enough, holding taxes at the same level, the current accounts debt could be paid off, but that seems unsustainable for the time that would be required. The alternative is likely to be economic collapse and hyperinflation, such as that now happening in Venezuela, and may soon happen in every industrial nation, . If the U.S economy grows at a high enough rate, with constant taxes, it can eventually pay off its debt, now more than $25 trillion in current account for the U.S., but there are perhaps ten times that in all unfunded obligations, A annual GDP growth rate of more than 3% might do that, for current account debt, in as little as 30 years, but there is no way the world as a whole can sustain that rate of growth. National debt is not just a matter of individual nations. The entire planet is in the same predicament. 
  
Much has been written about the feared "jubilee" event, in which the US either either defaults on or repudiates its debt. For example. Porter Stansberry in his book American Jubilee, A National Nightmare is Closer Than You Think,  in which he expects it to be a disaster for all but a few elites. James Rickards develops the same topic in The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites' Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis and in The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System .

However, most of the suggested strategies are to hoard gold or silver, which will little avail us in the disaster they foresee. There are not enough places for preppers to escape to or hide their gold in. A little silver or gold might be useful for trading, immediately, with people already dealing in them, but don't plan to save large investments, like IRAs or 401ks, or to have institutions holding silver or gold backed funds to survive confiscation. And there will be confiscation, including from private hoarders of such metals. Are you prepared to resist a knock on the door? Probably not. Hide everything and don't leave any maps lying around. Stock up on weapons, ammunition, and foodstuffs, and hide those as well.It may also help to have defensible land with good soil and a good supply of water.

Robert Wenzel wrote about this in his June 1992 article, Repudiating the National Debt, which appeared In Chronicles.and was reprinted by the Mises Institute.

But the subject was discussed as far back as 1960 by Milton Friedman in a draft of actual legislation, the Monetary Reform Act, plus some constitutional amendments, reprinted in  Money Masters.

The problem with all of these writings i that none of them offer strategies ordinary people, or governments, can use to prepare. Some are trying to prepare, but those preparations are likely to be useless, except perhaps for military personnel sheltering in "deep underground military (DUMB) bunkers. Some of the elites might be able to avail themselves of some of those, but probably not most of the ones who think they are prepared. 

Imagine that you wake up one morning, the banks and ATMs don't work, your accounts have all been seized, utilities are all being shut down, there is no fuel available to keep vehicles operating, Supermarket shelves are empty. The doors of prisons are thrown open, and you run out of food, water, wood, and ammunition. You suddenly find yourself trying to live under frontier conditions in an urban environment with no game or fish. and few sources of water. Now imagine even the elite trying to live through all that. 

A jubilee or collapse is can't be put off. That is what national government have been trying to do, but eventually kicking the can down the road will stop working. 

It is too late to build survival bunkers for everyone. But with some planning, it is possible to mitigate the disaster and hold down the loss of life. Not for everyone, and not for most of the elites, who will find themselves on Earth in the movie When Worlds Collide. with no place to go.

Now, for most people in the undeveloped world, it may not be that bad, but it will certainly be bad  enough for the United States and the industrial world. The prospects of this occurring is certainly part of the planning of some of the elites, and may explain some of their behavior.

This is the beginning o a much longer article, and perhaps a book, now obstructed by poverty and my lack of a computer. I will try to write more as I can.

Why hoarding gold and silver won't work

The media are filled with warnings of this, and offers to sell gold and silver. Many of the authors of books are pushing precious metals.But is this an appeal to fools?

We need to examine history. The hoarding of gold and silver has been tried, for centuries. The problem is that stocks of precious metals need to be guarded, and that is not feasible for most ordinary people. Perhaps for a few days, but not for months or years. When the U.S. government seized all monetary gold in 1933, they got it from the banks and other financial institutions. The only way to protect stocks from the government was to bury them, and fortune hunters are still occasionally finding those caches.

Having precious metal stocks will only work if there are essentials to buy. Having ammunition or medical supplies might better serve that purpose. See what continues to be traded in countries with collapsed economies, such as Argentina, Bosnia, or Venezuela, It is not gold or silver. The elites probably already seized all that.

Secure the basics

Although not technically a mass extinction event, it is close enough for purposes of preparation. 

Shelter
They need not be fallout shelters, unless there is a global nuclear war, which could be triggered by global economic collapse. Short of that people may need shelters from other threats, such as marauding bands of refugees. 

Though perhaps less likely, there is a serious threat from things like solar proton flares that could bathe the planet with lethal radiation, at least for a few weeks. Deep military bunkers will not be made available to most people.

Land.

The basic wealth. It needs to be fertile, with abundant water, and defensible. Probably nothing close to cities. 

Communications.

No one can long survive alone or in small groups.. hat means radios, preferably shielded from EMP events.

Weapons.

Again, defense takes forming organized groups of trusted and able people. Think of fortress communities. 

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